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Wednesday AM Daily | August 20, 2025
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5 takeaways from the 2025 Manufacturing Forecast
The Business Record recently hosted its annual Manufacturing Forecast event, which was focused this year on economic uncertainty and tariffs.
Manufacturing is an important sector of the
state’s economy, making up 17% of Iowa’s GDP at $35 billion annually. Uncertainty due to changes in federal rules and trade deals have left many concerned about the financial health of manufacturing businesses and related companies.
Panelists included:
- Nicole Crain, president, Iowa Association of Business and Industry
- Ernie Goss, director of the Institute for Economic Inquiry and Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics at Creighton University
- Matt Koch, chief marketing officer, Sukup Manufacturing Co.
- Peter Orazem, interim chair, Iowa State University Department of Economic
The panelists discussed how Iowa's manufacturing sector is taking on many challenges, including higher interest rates, a lagging ag economy, supply chain disruptions and ongoing labor issues, including immigration and deportation.
Here are five takeaways from the event.
1. Tariff policy is creating major uncertainty: Tariffs are shifting frequently and being used for political purposes rather than strictly economic ones, which panelists said is harmful to trade relationships, especially with key partners like Canada and Mexico. Business leaders want trade policy stability to make long-term decisions. “If there's a purpose to tariffs, you want to have them narrowly tailored to the purpose of business, and not for political ends,” Orazem said. “Using them for political ends actually just adds more uncertainty. Who knows what will be the rationale for a change in tariff policy tomorrow?"
2. Manufacturers face rising costs and supply chain impacts: Steel prices and other input costs are up 12-15% due to tariffs, even when sourcing domestically. These disruptions are limiting companies’ ability to plan and invest confidently.
“We can't just change the game. I think that we were all depending on each other,” Koch said. “We have such an interdependent economy. The moment we start changing the game, then all
of a sudden, supply chain is massively disrupted.”
3. Labor shortages continue to hinder Iowa manufacturing: Workforce availability remains a top concern due to low immigration, deportations and flat employment growth. Companies like Sukup are expanding hiring outside of Iowa due to local shortages. Crain said ABI members are looking for skilled workers to hire.
“What I'm still seeing and hearing as I'm talking with members is workforce and how do we upskill our current workforce? How do we recruit new talent to the workforce and to the manufacturing industry, and how do we talk to them about the great jobs and careers there are in manufacturing,” Crain said. “Even through the uncertainty that we are seeing, employers still need employees, whether that's in rural or urban, large or small manufacturers. What our members are talking to me about is they need people that are qualified, that can get through their initial application process and that are ready to go to work.”
4. Mixed
opinions among Iowa manufacturers on tariffs: Support for tariffs varies across industries and countries. Anecdotally, there seems to be more support for tariffs on China than on Canada/Mexico. Smaller manufacturers especially feel the need for fair trade and are hurt by volatility.
“We hear that 40% [of ABI members] don't support the trade policy on Canada and Mexico, while 43% support the tariff and trade policy on China,” Crain said. “I also think it probably speaks to the different industries that we have within our membership, and how they are directly affected, and what they're seeing and hearing in the work that they do.”
5. Short-term caution, long-term cautious optimism: The panelists said they generally expect the manufacturing sector to worsen or stay flat in the next six months, but sees long-term potential due to technology, AI, infrastructure investments, continued business innovation and vertical integration.
“I expect manufacturing to move sideways to a
bit down, but that's in the next six months,” Goss said. “Beyond that, I'm very positive about the U.S. economy, the regional economy, and why is that? Well, I think AI is very, very useful in terms of what we economists would call segmenting the market.”
To view a recording of the full event, visit BusinessRecord.com.
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NEWS BRIEFS
ChildServe adding new Davenport location in 2026
ChildServe announced the organization is expanding in eastern Iowa by opening a new facility in Davenport. The 9,865-square-foot space will offer autism and Applied Behavior Analysis services, as well as outpatient rehabilitation therapy, including speech, occupational and physical therapy. The new facility is expected to open in early 2026. ChildServe launched a $1 million capital campaign to fund the new location. The new location is part of ChildServe's regional growth strategy, which has included expansions of its Ames and Iowa City facilities, the relocation and expansion of its Des Moines location and expanding its
presence to Cedar Rapids. “We’ve experienced significant growth on our waitlists across the state. Specifically, we’ve seen an increased need for autism services, and we are making significant investments with a dedicated effort to serve more Iowa children. We’re embracing new possibilities and new partnerships to meet families where they are on their health care journey,” Dr. Teri Wahlig, ChildServe president and CEO, said in a prepared statement.
Wellmark Foundation provides $5.3M to rural health care provider training program
The Wellmark Foundation has partnered with the University of Iowa College of Nursing’s Simulation in Motion-Iowa (SIM-IA) program to help strengthen health care delivery in rural Iowa communities. The program is a mobile clinical education initiative that delivers immersive, on-site simulation training to equip first responders and other health care professionals with the skills to improve patient outcomes. The program intends to help address health care challenges in rural Iowa, including more than half of Iowa’s counties lacking obstetric services, and many
emergency responders not having access to hands-on clinical education, a news release said.
The $5.3 million investment by the Wellmark Foundation will expand the reach and frequency of the training provided by the program to provide 86 rural and urban-mixed Iowa counties with training at no cost at least twice per year, with one session focused on maternal health. “Wellmark believes that where you live should not determine the quality of care you receive. Knowing SIM-IA addresses many health care needs across rural Iowa, we are excited to partner with the University of Iowa College of Nursing to broaden their ongoing program,” Laura Jackson, executive vice president of health improvement at Wellmark and chair of the Wellmark Foundation, said in a prepared statement. “Our investment
is intended to remove the barriers of cost and access to critical, hands-on training for our dedicated rural first responders and health care providers.”
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MEMBERSHIP EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
Settling into the new normal
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The COVID-19 pandemic caused employers around the world to undertake the dramatic shift to remote work to reduce transmission of the virus.
This was the beginning of a new way of working, one that brought the importance of flexibility and having space for personal lives to the forefront for employees. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the percentage of employees working from home grew from 5.7% of all workers in 2019 to 17.9% in 2021, an increase of almost 19 million employees.
Five years later,
after a vaccine and reduced rates of the virus, flexible work remains a top priority for employees and job seekers. A report from LiveCareer states 76% of Millennials, 69% of Gen Z and 64% of Gen X expect flexibility in work options.
Some companies have required employees to return to the office on either a full-time or hybrid basis. Businesses like Amazon, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Ankeny-based Casey’s require most or all employees to be in the office full time. The Trump administration required all federal government employees to work full time in office starting in January. Read more
MORE INSIDER CONTENT: See all Business Record Insider content and become an
Insider.
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NEWS BRIEFS
In Sierra Leone, World Food Prize Foundation spurs students to build food-secure future
Des Moines Register: The World Food Prize Foundation, headquartered in Des Moines, in July completed the first session of its Youth Institute in Sierra Leone, a west African nation where, according to the World Food Programme, 77% of people are food-insecure. It's a new outgrowth of a program that for decades worked mostly with youths in the United States and other high-income nations to develop leaders interested in solving food crises around the globe. Through the Youth Institute, high school students are challenged to learn about and present solutions to issues related to world hunger, a program emphasizing research skills, writing and public speaking.
Shelby and Story counties to pursue U.S. Supreme Court action on local pipeline ordinance case
Iowa Capital Dispatch: County supervisors in Shelby and Story counties voted Tuesday to pursue further legal action in their case against Summit Carbon Solutions pertaining to county-specific ordinances on hazardous liquid pipelines. A U.S. district judge and federal appeals judges have previously ruled on the case in favor of Summit and now the counties are seeking a review of the rulings from the U.S. Supreme Court, though a Summit filing holds the ordinances would still be preempted by state laws. Ordinances in both
counties established setbacks and permitting requirements for the pipeline company to construct in the county. Summit argued, and a federal judge in the Southern District of Iowa ruled, the ordinances were preempted by federal pipeline safety standards. The counties appealed the case, and judges for the Eighth Circuit court of appeals concurred with the lower court, though one judge partially dissented on the case.
Target names a lifelong employee, Iowa native as company’s next CEO
Wall Street Journal: Target thinks a lifelong employee can lift the company out
of its funk. Investors aren’t buying it. Target shares fell more than 8% in early trading today after the company said its chief operating officer, Michael Fiddelke, would become Target’s new chief executive officer in February. Fiddelke, a native of Manchester, Iowa, and a University of Iowa graduate, succeeds Brian Cornell, who has held the top job for 11 years. Cornell will become executive chairman of the board, the company said. Fiddelke will take over a company that is in a prolonged sales slump, losing out to such rivals as Walmart and Amazon.com.
- McDonald’s to cut combo meal prices after convincing franchisees (Wall Street Journal)
- Minnesota
sues TikTok, alleging it preys on young people with addictive algorithms (Associated Press)
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ONE GOOD READ
Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs—and America’s mobility is stallingWall Street Journal: Americans are stuck in place. People are moving to new homes and new cities at around the lowest rate on record. Companies have fewer roles for entry-level workers trying to launch their lives. Workers who do have jobs are hanging on to them. Economists worry the phenomenon is putting some of the country’s trademark dynamism at risk. Josue Leon, who recently graduated from the University of Pennsylvania with an engineering degree, applied for over 200 jobs since April, piling up credit-card debt and living in his girlfriend’s family’s home. In many cases, he didn’t even get a reply. “It’s been a
nightmare,” he said. But when the Fort Worth, Texas, resident finally got a job offer, he turned it down: The job would have required a move to Massachusetts, the company didn’t offer relocation assistance and the five-figure salary wouldn’t stretch far.
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KCCI TOP STORIES
Bobcat spotted in Clive neighborhood
A bobcat was recently spotted in a Clive neighborhood. A KCCI viewer sent in a photo of the bobcat. The DNR said the bobcat was probably just exploring the area before moving along. Bobcats are not uncommon along Central Iowa's river corridors, forest spaces and other natural areas. Sometimes, they stray a little further than their normal stomping grounds. In November, a group of bobcats and their kittens were spotted on the deck of a home in West Des Moines. The DNR said at the time that bobcats used
to be endangered in Iowa but have made a comeback in recent decades. Read more
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Today:
A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 87. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight:
Partly cloudy. Low 67. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
Get the latest KCCI weather.
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MOBILE SPEED UNIT LOCATIONSToday:
4800 block of Hickman Road
3100 block of Martin Luther King Jr. Parkway
2900 block of Sixth Avenue
Tomorrow:
300 block of Southeast McKinley Avenue
2800 block of Indianola Avenue
1700 block of Park Avenue
See the full week's listing on the Des Moines Police Department's Facebook page.
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BUSINESS RECORD IOWA INDEXThe Iowa Index is an unweighted average of all Iowa-based public companies. Below is a live look at those Iowa companies, plus additional companies with large operations in Iowa.
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